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Variants of Populism

Support for Populism in 22 European countries

Marlon Schumacher1, Quynh Nga Nguyen2 & Fabio Votta3

08-06-2018

1 E-Mail: M.C.Schumacher@live.de
2 E-Mail: nga.nguyen@scpobx.fr
3 E-Mail: fabio.votta@gmail.com

Slides available at variants-of-populism.netlify.com/

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Goal:

Conceptualize and measure populism in a way that takes into account the multidimensionality of the phenomenon.

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Challenges & Shortcomings

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Challenges & Shortcomings

1st Challenge: The never ending confusion

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Challenges & Shortcomings

1st Challenge: The never ending confusion


Populists are...

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Challenges & Shortcomings

1st Challenge: The never ending confusion


Populists are... right-wing.
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Challenges & Shortcomings

1st Challenge: The never ending confusion


Populists are... right-wing.


... right?
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Challenges & Shortcomings

1st Challenge: The never ending confusion


Populists are... right-wing.


... right?


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Cas Mudde has been influential in the literature, suggesting that populist philosophy is a loose set of ideas that share three core features: anti-establishment, authoritarianism, and nativism.

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Cas Mudde has been influential in the literature, suggesting that populist philosophy is a loose set of ideas that share three core features: anti-establishment, authoritarianism, and nativism.

Inglehart & Norris (2016)

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Cas Mudde has been influential in the literature, suggesting that populist philosophy is a loose set of ideas that share three core features: anti-establishment, authoritarianism, and nativism.

Inglehart & Norris (2016)

Mudde, C. (2007). Populist radical right parties in Europe (Vol. 22, No. 8). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

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Challenges & Shortcomings

To study the populist phenomenon means...

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Challenges & Shortcomings

To study the populist phenomenon means... to enter muddy waters.
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Challenges & Shortcomings

To study the populist phenomenon means... to enter muddy waters.


What is populist about populism?

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Challenges & Shortcomings

To study the populist phenomenon means... to enter muddy waters.


What is populist about populism?

  • Organization?
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Challenges & Shortcomings

To study the populist phenomenon means... to enter muddy waters.


What is populist about populism?

  • Organization?

  • Communication?

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Challenges & Shortcomings

To study the populist phenomenon means... to enter muddy waters.


What is populist about populism?

  • Organization?

  • Communication?

  • Ideology?

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Challenges & Shortcomings

To study the populist phenomenon means... to enter muddy waters.


What is populist about populism?

  • Organization?

  • Communication?

  • Ideology?

All at once?

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Challenges & Shortcomings

To study the populist phenomenon means... to enter muddy waters.


What is populist about populism?

  • Organization?

  • Communication?

  • Ideology?

All at once?


=> Populism has a "chameleonic" character (Taggart 2000)

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Challenges & Shortcomings

Populism as a thin centered ideology (Mudde & Kaltwasser 2017):

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Challenges & Shortcomings

Populism as a thin centered ideology (Mudde & Kaltwasser 2017):

  • Two groups: "pure people" vs. "corrupt elites"
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Challenges & Shortcomings

Populism as a thin centered ideology (Mudde & Kaltwasser 2017):

  • Two groups: "pure people" vs. "corrupt elites"

  • Politics should express "volonté générale"

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Challenges & Shortcomings

Populism as a thin centered ideology (Mudde & Kaltwasser 2017):

  • Two groups: "pure people" vs. "corrupt elites"

  • Politics should express "volonté générale"


But who are the people?

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Challenges & Shortcomings

Populism as a thin centered ideology (Mudde & Kaltwasser 2017):

  • Two groups: "pure people" vs. "corrupt elites"

  • Politics should express "volonté générale"


But who are the people?

2nd Challenge: The variants of populism

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Challenges & Shortcomings

Populism as a thin centered ideology (Mudde & Kaltwasser 2017):

  • Two groups: "pure people" vs. "corrupt elites"

  • Politics should express "volonté générale"


But who are the people?

2nd Challenge: The variants of populism

Left/Right?

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Challenges & Shortcomings

Populism as a thin centered ideology (Mudde & Kaltwasser 2017):

  • Two groups: "pure people" vs. "corrupt elites"

  • Politics should express "volonté générale"


But who are the people?

2nd Challenge: The variants of populism

Left/Right?

Liberal/Illiberal?

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Challenges & Shortcomings

Populism as a thin centered ideology (Mudde & Kaltwasser 2017):

  • Two groups: "pure people" vs. "corrupt elites"

  • Politics should express "volonté générale"


But who are the people?

2nd Challenge: The variants of populism

Left/Right?

Liberal/Illiberal?

... Progressive/Traditionalist.

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Data & Methods

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Data & Methods

CHES Dataset

Positions of 218 political parties in 22 European countries on european and national policy issues.

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Data & Methods

CHES Dataset

Positions of 218 political parties in 22 European countries on european and national policy issues.

Minimalist Definition of Populism

  • Salience of anti-establishment and anti-elite rhetoric
  • Euroskepticism (attitudes towards European integration)
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Data & Methods

CHES Dataset

Positions of 218 political parties in 22 European countries on european and national policy issues.

Minimalist Definition of Populism

  • Salience of anti-establishment and anti-elite rhetoric
  • Euroskepticism (attitudes towards European integration)

Progressive vs. Traditionalist Populism

  • Green-Alternative-Libertarian (GAL) and Traditional-Authoritarian-Nationalist (TAN)
  • Position on social lifestyle (e.g. homosexuality)
  • Position on civil liberties vs. law and order
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Data & Methods

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Data & Methods

Merging with ESS (Round 5-8: 2010-2016)

Two variables will be used to measure our dependent variable:

  1. What party did you vote for in the last national election?
  2. Which party is closest to your views?
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Data & Methods

Merging with ESS (Round 5-8: 2010-2016)

Two variables will be used to measure our dependent variable:

  1. What party did you vote for in the last national election?
  2. Which party is closest to your views?

Resulting DV has three categories:

Support for Establishment/Traditionalist & Progressive Populist Parties

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Data & Methods

Merging with ESS (Round 5-8: 2010-2016)

Two variables will be used to measure our dependent variable:

  1. What party did you vote for in the last national election?
  2. Which party is closest to your views?

Resulting DV has three categories:

Support for Establishment/Traditionalist & Progressive Populist Parties

Bayesian Multinomial Regression:

Independent Variables:

Economic Insecurity, Unemployment, Welfare, Anti-Immigration Sentiment, Age, Education, Sex, Left-Right Scale, Religiosity, Government Satisfaction, Trust in Global Governance, Rural vs. Urban, Regional dummies (East, West, North and Southern Europe) and temporal dummies (2010, 2012, 2014 and 2016)

Total: 68.403 respondents in 22 countries

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Results

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Conclusions

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Conclusions

  • Results of Inglehart & Norris 2016 could mostly be reproduced
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Conclusions

  • Results of Inglehart & Norris 2016 could mostly be reproduced

  • Conceptualization/Classification seems to be appropriate

    • should be checked/validated by others in the future (too broad?)
    • correlation with other measures
    • some communist parties may represent special cases
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Conclusions

  • Results of Inglehart & Norris 2016 could mostly be reproduced

  • Conceptualization/Classification seems to be appropriate

    • should be checked/validated by others in the future (too broad?)
    • correlation with other measures
    • some communist parties may represent special cases

  • Many missing values (include non-aligned/abstainees category?)

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Conclusions

  • Results of Inglehart & Norris 2016 could mostly be reproduced

  • Conceptualization/Classification seems to be appropriate

    • should be checked/validated by others in the future (too broad?)
    • correlation with other measures
    • some communist parties may represent special cases

  • Many missing values (include non-aligned/abstainees category?)

  • Future research should take the multidimensionality of populism into account

    • specifically avoid conflating right-wing populism with populism in general
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Thanks for Listening!

Slides: https://variants-of-populism.netlify.com/

Code and Data on GitHub

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References

Inglehart, R. and Norris, P., Trump, Brexit, and the Rise of Populism: Economic Have-Nots and Cultural Backlash (2016). HKS Working Paper No. RWP16-026. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2818659 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2818659

Mudde, C., & Kaltwasser, C. R. (2017).Populism: A very short introduction. Oxford UniversityPress

Taggart, P. (2000). Populism. Buckingham PA. Open University Press

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Appendix

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Goal:

Conceptualize and measure populism in a way that takes into account the multidimensionality of the phenomenon.

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